The Preview - Rangers (A) - 15/1/25

Can the Dons build on a clean sheet & ending the losing streak against Hearts in our visit to Govan tonight?

In a season of moments, you’d be hard pressed not to suggest that Shayden Morris’ 74th minute winner against the Premiership’s youngest side was THE moment of the campaign so far.

As October drew to a close, the Dons were flying and the deserved win over Rangers in front of a sold-out, raucous Pittodrie saw Jimmy Thelin’s men open up a nine point gap over the beleaguered Phillipe Clement’s side. Aberdeen remained unbeaten on league duty and belief was growing, not just in the North East, but across the country that this could be the season that saw a splitting of the Glasgow duopoly at the top of the table. Rangers were a mess, Aberdeen were flying and everything and anything seemed possible.

There’s little to no need to re-litigate our run of form since - no wins in eleven games says quite enough as does the fact that we find ourselves sitting in 4th spot, 9 points behind a Rangers side who appear to be doing everything in their power to hand 2nd spot to any side willing to step up and grab the proverbial brass ring and, frustratingly, tonight’s fixture at Ibrox gives the home side the opportunity to open up a, likely unassailable, 12 point gap.

Ibrox Awaits

Tonight’s meeting at Ibrox will be the 17th league game between the sides in Govan and our record is far from sparkling - just the 3 wins for the Dons, a couple of draws and 11 wins for the home side. Our last visit to Ibrox saw Neil Warnock (shudders) live out his wildest dreams and sit in the away dugout and his side were on the wrong end of a 2-1 scoreline, mainly thanks to Kelle Roos doing Kelle Roos things.

Aberdeen, of course, had brought to an end the reign of Mick Beale at Rangers earlier in the season with a comprehensive 3-1 victory that raised hopes that Barry Robson might have figured out a way to get the best out of his team, the least said about that the better.

Despite Rangers’ travails on the road, there’s no question that a visit to Ibrox remains a significant challenge to be overcome. They retain the joint best home record in the SPFL Premiership, their only dropped points coming in the 1-1 draw with Dundee United back in November and their standout result of the season was the 3-0 demolition of Celtic on 2nd January.

The home side are still facing significant injury concerns, in particular in defensive areas. Butland, Tavernier, Balogen, Sterling, Souttar & Kasanwirjo all remain injured and it’s unlikely that any of these players feature on Wednesday. In recent games, Clement has defaulted to Liam Kelly in goals with a back 4 of Jefte at LB, Propper & Nsiala in the centre of defence with Yilmaz in an unfamiliar role at RB.

Expect to see Diamonde & Raskin in the centre of the park as they appear to now be Clement’s go-to option in the midfield. Likely that Cerny, Hagi and one of Bajrami or Danillo sitting in behind Hamza Igamane up front.

Igamane has had a real breakout period in recent weeks. Having made the move to Scotland in the summer from FAR Rabat in his native Morocco, Igamane appeared to be a project player with much needed work during his early appearances for Rangers. That view has certainly shifted in recent weeks - he comes into this fixture with 6 goals in his last 5 games, bolstered by a hat-trick against Hibs at Easter Road where his threat was well established - decent in the air, has a good level of pace about him to run in behind defences and has a trick or two in his back pocket to take on a man.

Definitely one to watch.

In terms of style, Clement’s side remain extremely possession orientated - only Celtic have higher possession stats in the Premiership but Rangers are failing this season in turning that possession into goals.

For context, Rangers’ big chances created tally of 68 across the season is well down on Celtic’s (108). Even then when they are creating chances, their are struggling to find the net - a 10.0% shot conversion rate is the 4th lowest in the league - only Ross County, Hearts and Kilmarnock are converting less shots into goals. This is, perhaps, a more pertinent statistic in relation to Rangers’ away form where they have still only netted 13 times in 11 games away from Ibrox, at home they have scored 28 goals in 11 games played, so averaging nearly 2.5 goals/game at home.

Generally speaking, the threat from Rangers comes from open play situations - 34 of their 41 goals have come from general play with another 6 coming from set plays, 1 OG brings up their tally. 6 goals from set-plays remains the lowest total in the league to date. Curiously, Rangers have yet to be awarded a penalty kick this season - perhaps a visit to the bookies is well-advised ahead of kick-off?

There is pace & trickery in the Rangers attack, particularly in wide areas so the Aberdeen full-backs - expect it to be Devlin & McGarry need to remain switched on at all times.

Defensively, at home, they’ve been relatively resolute (especially considering the number of hilariously shambolic goals they have conceded on the road) - only 4 goals have been scored by visiting teams to Govan in 11 games this season although shot shy St. Johnstone managed one of those at the weekend which brings hope to anyone.

A date with destiny for Thelin?

Jimmy Thelin has already created records in his time as Aberdeen manager and he can add another accolade to his CV with a win at Ibrox this evening, in doing so, he would become the first Aberdeen manager to win both their first two league games against Rangers (old & new). A Dons win would also be the first time that we’ve earned back-to-back league wins over the Govan outfit(s) since September 1993 & the first time within the same season since November 1987.

Thelin’s squad is bolstered by the arrivals of Alfie Dorrington & Alexander Jensen earlier in the week. With Jensen having joined during the Swedish close season, he may not be quite ready to feature from the start tonight but expect to see him in the squad if all formalities regarding his work visa are completed. Slobodan Rubežić remains suspended for this one and so the big question probably comes around who will partner Kristers Tobers in the heart of the Aberdeen defence - a debut for Alfie Dorrington or does Sivert Heltne Nilsen retain his place?

For me, with the threat of Igamane’s pace in behind is a significant one and Dorrington is known for having a decent level of recovery pace & he spoke highly about his own ability to deal with attackers making that run in behind. Tobers is also not slow, despite his size, and having a level of pace in the centre of the defence will be a huge benefit for Aberdeen this evening.

I would advocate for Heltne Nilsen & Palaversa to take the double-pivot roles within Thelin’s 4-2-3-1 and I’d be tempted to play Shinnie as the nominal “10” who can drop into a flat 3 when we are out of possession but Shinnie operating in a similar manner to how we set up at Fir Park in the opening stages where Shinnie was able to assist our striker with pressing the backline.

I would be tempted to take Jeppe Okkels out of the starting XI initially, instead I’d go with Shayden Morris & Topi Keskinen on the flanks to start things off - my rationale being that Jefte & Yilmaz appear to be the weak links defensively - Morris & Keskinen’s pace can really threaten this pair and it can also mean that we attempt to pin the full backs in their defensive shape and limit their opportunity to bomb up the line.

Keskinen’s role will be interesting on Wednesday night - his “out to in” runs in behind the Hearts’ backline on Sunday were extremely effective, particularly in the first half, and he could/should’ve had a couple of goals before the break which would’ve put an entirely different spin on the game had he taken those chances. It will be interesting to see if he is deployed in a similar manner, becoming a runner beyond Nisbet for balls played through the lines or whether he is tasked with the role we’ve been more accustomed to where he hugs the touchline and is asked to go one on one with the full back.

Up top, I expect Nisbet to get the nod again, mainly due to the lack of options that remain in place for Thelin in this game and he showed flashes of link up play on Sunday afternoon that outweigh putting Duk or Ambrose in for this one.

All in all - another tough game awaits but, if there was one place to look to get a win that might kick-start the next phase of the season, this is it.

Prediction - Rangers 1-2 Aberdeen

COYR!