Kristers Tobers

Aberdeen dip into the January market for the second time in a sign that the Pittodrie board is proactively backing their manager...

The big fear for the majority of Aberdeen fans coming into the January transfer window was that we would see a repeat of previous years where the upper echelons of the Pittodrie leadership team failed to back an under-pressure manager with the signings that they, clearly, needed to make.

The disastrous 2021 window that saw the hodge-podge and ill-thought arrival of Fraser Hornby, Calum Hendry & Florian Kamberi to replace the outgoing Sam Cosgrove, ultimately, did for Derek McInnes and his reign as Aberdeen manager came to an end a couple of months later.

Stephen Glass was desperately in need of a shake up to his defence and midfield - instead he was provided with a project player in the form of Dante Polvara & a winger in Vicente Besuijen. Glass was gone 13 days following the end of the window.

Goodwin - least said the better. The Dons finally jumping into action to solve the glaring defensive issues that captain, Anthony Stewart, was integral to on the final days of the window - Mattie Pollock & Angus MacDonald brought in to support Barry Robson’s interim spell.

And then there’s Robson himself, the Dons clearly needing improvements in his squad in January last year, none were forthcoming other than the acquisition of Killian Phillips on a loan deal - Robson sacked on the last day of the month and another window wasted.

Aberdeen’s remarkable start to the 2024/25 season under Jimmy Thelin raised expectations amongst the Red Army that this could be a season to remember - an unbeaten league run to late November saw the Dons sitting second in the table, level on points with Celtic at the summit and having opened up a 9 point gap on Rangers in 3rd. Defeat at St. Mirren kicked off the current run of form that has seen the Dons fail to win in 9 league games and slip to 4th - level on points with Dundee United who have reeled in the Dons who also now sit 6 points behind Rangers in 2nd.

All that said, there are still 17 games to play in the league and the Dons have yet to kick off our Scottish Cup tilt - there remains significant opportunities to make this a season to remember but Thelin’s side needs to arrest the slide quickly to ensure that the season doesn’t drift away. The obvious area that requires correction is in Aberdeen’s defence.

Despite our impressive run to begin the campaign, the Dons were still leaking chances and conceding poor goals which was being skirted over because the Dons were winning games.

Gavin Molloy has, probably, been the most impressive of Aberdeen’s defenders thus far but even then, he’s been culpable for errors leading to goals as he continues to learn and develop in his first season in Scottish football.

Slobodan Rubežić continues to frustrate - for 80% of the things the Montenegrin international does right, there is always a mistake or lapse of judgement waiting in the wings and those rough edges still aren’t smoothing out in the way that many within the Aberdeen hierarchy would have hoped by now.

Angus MacDonald has failed to feature frequently for Aberdeen under numerous managers now and has been unable to take the opportunity presented to him in recent weeks. His showing at Rugby Park was poor and he was singularly culpable for one of Motherwell’s strikes at the weekend and there’s an argument to be made that he contributed to the other alongside Jack MacKenzie. Thelin seemed to agree, hooking the centre-half at the break, instead opting to place the midfield duo of Dante Polvara & Sivert Heltne-Nilsen into the heart of the defence. MacDonald has not looked comfortable being asked to play out from the back in the manner that Thelin wants and his diminishing pace was exposed brutally at Fir Park.

With all that said, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Dons have been linked with defensive options for a number of weeks now with the name of Kristers Tobers featuring prominently - it was, therefore, not a massive surprise when Aberdeen announced the signing of the Latvian centre-half on Wednesday evening.

A leader, a consummate professional and ready to make an impact…

Tobers, who just turned 24 in December, is another intriguing piece of business by Aberdeen. Capped 37 times by his country, the Dobele-born centre half started his career in his native Latvia, coming through the youth ranks at top flight side, Liepaja before making the move in 2020 to Lechia Gdansk. After three and a half years with the Polish outfit, amassing 70 appearances, Tobers made the switch to Grasshopper Club Zurich under freedom of contract in the summer of 2023.

In Switzerland, Tobers was a consistent starter in the heart of the Zurich side’s defence and he makes the move to Aberdeen having made 44 appearances in his 18-month spell with the ‘Hoppers.

There are, perhaps, parallels with the signature of Slobodan Rubežić - certainly in terms of age profile, Ruby was 23 years old on arrival - and there’s definitely a risk in throwing in a relative youngster to your starting XI in an area of the pitch where experience is paramount. The key difference here is that Rubežić arrived at Aberdeen with limited game time under his belt for his age - just 85 first team games, 78 of which game in Serbia. Tobers arrives with 175 first team games to his name. Tobers also has European experience having featured in Europa & Conference League qualifiers previously.

Jimmy Thelin certainly views the acquisition of Tobers as a real statement signing and it’s clear that Tobers will become an integral part of Thelin’s first team squad, the Swede commenting on his new acquisition:-

…it’s taken a lot of work behind the scenes [to get Tobers here] but he believes in what we are trying to build…

…he is the consummate professional and not only will he fit our style of play but he will add real leadership to the squad…

…we believe that he will help our younger, developing players…we are confident he will be a player that will make an immediate positive impact on and off the pitch.

So, what sort of player can we expect to see?

On the face of it, a very impressive defender. Tobers recent numbers from his time in Switzerland are of a high standard when it comes to his defensive output (again, check out the excellent VitT on X for more detailed analysis):-

• Defensive actions - averaging 10.69 per 90 minutes putting Tobers in the “elite” category of comparable players in the Swiss top flight;

• Defensive duels won - averaging 70.91% this season;

• Aerial duels won - averaging 70.73% this season;

• Interceptions - 8.38p90 this season;

• Shot blocks - 0.95p90 this season;

• Discipline - low percentage numbers for fouls (0.76p90) and cards (0.38p90)

In effect, we are looking at a centre-half who has a strong ability to win the ball and to effectively engage in defensive duels and one who, thus far, demonstrates a dominant ability in the air - this will be music to the ears of the Red Army given this season’s defensive issues.

On top of that, Tobers appears to be a player with a high level of game intelligence and anticipation, able to step in to situations and intercept the ball or cut off passing opportunities for the opponent. There’s even a hint of the Nicky Devlin’s about his willingness to put his body on the line to block shots.

Even better, he appears to be entirely composed in his work - exceptionally low percentile numbers for fouls and cards show a player who is not rash and doesn’t allow himself to be suckered into situations where he has to give away fouls.

Latvian press will also tell us that he demonstrates quick recovery skills - e.g. he has a decent turn of pace on him if he does get beaten or a player gets in behind him - again, compare this to the slow and cumbersome makeup of our current backline.

All in all - really positive, right?

In terms of areas of improvement - the obvious areas that the data points to is in relation to his ability on the ball - long ball completions are solid enough (a success rate of 59.46%) is fine enough and shows a player capable of spraying the odd pass around. Perhaps more concerning is on his ability to progressively carry the ball - a progressive pass rate of 7.44 per 90 is around average - he may not be the player in the Dons defensive line to be looking to play the ball through the lines and his progressive carries figure of 0.67p90 is also around average in the Swiss league.

For all of that though, Grasshoppers have struggled in the last 2 seasons and it’s not clear just how much of an opportunity Tobers has had to showcase his ability from a progressive perspective - this is going to be reliant upon the way in which ‘Hoppers were setup to play… Very few players in the Barry Robson-era Dons would be topping the charts in these metrics.

For his national side, Tobers has been encouraged to play more from the back and reports from Latvia indicate that he is more than comfortable in doing so.

All things considered, this one looks like an intriguing piece of business by the Aberdeen recruitment team. A national team captain with over 150 games under his belt, with the data set to boot looks like a bargain at the reported £600k (or one Connor Barron) and there have been envious eyes cast North from some sides in the central belt as to how Aberdeen have identified & picked him up.

For Tobers, it’s an ideal move - a player with well-documented ambitions of playing in the English Premier League now has the chance to strut his stuff in a bordering league that has shown much more interest in talent from Scotland in recent seasons.

Tobers’ work permit was successfully obtained by the Dons on Thursday meaning he is available for Sunday’s visit of Hearts to Pittodrie which means there’s a strong chance that the Red Army can get our first glimpse of our new No. 24 then.

Welcome Kristers & COYR!