I Still Believe

Aberdeen got back to winning ways with a convincing victory over Dunfermline, we look to see if there are reasons to be hopeful buried in the performance...

For a team struggling with confidence, the visit of a side struggling in the league below in the Scottish Cup always had the potential to go one of two ways. A confidence building win from which to grow back into the season with or the archetypal banana skin?

Whilst the spectre of Darvel is never too far from the mind, the truth of the matter is that the Dons have dealt with lower league opposition fairly comfortably in recent seasons. Edinburgh City, Peterhead, Dumbarton, Stirling Albion, Raith Rovers, Annan Athletic, Partick Thistle, Bonnyrigg Rose, Queen of the South, East Kilbride, Airdrie, Queen’s Park (more on them later), The Spartans & Elgin City have all been dispatched with relatively minimal fuss in recent campaigns – that much should be expected given the massive budget gap between Aberdeen and these sides.

Dunfermline were the latest side to be added to that list on Sunday afternoon. With the Premier Sports cameras in situ, desperate for a shock, Jimmy Thelin’s men delivered a professional performance to comfortably take a place in the Quarter Final draw where a route to a potential Hampden appearance in the final opened right up with the elimination of Scotland’s youngest top flight side by Scotland’s oldest side.

Despite Aberdeen having been resounding favourites at the bookies, it can’t be understated just how important the win was but also the manner in which the Dons progressed into the next round. Did the performance provide a lot more hope for the Red Army as we enter a critical phase of the season?

Heltne Nilsen & Palaversa

Back in the starting XI and handed the captain’s armband in the absence of Shinnie & Devlin, this was a performance from Heltne Nilsen that was much more reminiscent of his early season form and a reminder of just how important a player he could be for this side.

There is little to no doubt that the Norwegian midfielder has been flagging in recent weeks – perhaps to be expected given the sheer number of minutes of football he has played over the past 12 months. Having been sub’d at the break in the game with St. Mirren and benched completely against Hibs it looked as though the rest had done the 33 year old the world of good. He looked fresher and more mobile than in recent games and his work defensively and further up the park was an important aspect of our performance on Sunday.

A pass success rate on Sunday of 92% placed him only behind Tobers & Knoester within the Aberdeen side represents a definite return to form for Sivert. Some of the biggest criticisms of his play in recent games has been in relation to sloppy passing, pushing the side into trouble – that said, with the way that Thelin likes his CBs and CMs to set up (in the classic box setup) he is tasked with taking on risky passes from time to time in order to try and break lines or press.

It’s not always going to be bang on but it’s fair to say that his levels in this area had dropped off. Fingers crossed that this level of form can be maintained as we are a much better side with a firing Heltne Nilsen in it than him being absent completely.

He’s also the player that is most frequently found when it comes to making passes across the field. In his 70 minutes on the park, Heltne Nilsen was found by a team-mate on 51 occasions – only Tobers & Jensen were on the receiving end of passes more often (54 & 56 respectively) but they both played a full 20 minutes more than Heltne Nilsen – he remains the fulcrum from which Thelin looks to build from and it’s critical that his form is recaptured if we are to go on to finish the season positively.

Pass combination graphic from Wyscout Report Centre – larger the dot = most frequent number of touches, intensity of line shows most frequent passing combinations.

Joining Heltne Nilsen in the double pivot was Ante Palaversa – this is a combination that we’ve, perhaps, not seen enough of so far this campaign and this performance certainly lends credence to the idea that this may be the most balance we can find within the central midfield areas.

Palaversa had a solid outing – 87% pass success rate, 55% duel success rate, 15 recoveries and 100% success rate on progressive passes (10/10) together with a lovely dead ball delivery for Gueye’s opener all contributed to the type of performance we were hoping for from a man who arrived with significant promise.

The fact that we are also now seeing Palaversa last deeper into games is also a positive sign that the club believe that he’s ready to play more frequently for the entire duration of a game without fear of a breakdown. It feels all the more important, for that reason, to keep him in the team and let him build some real belief.

For me, if Thelin is going to stick with the 4-2-3-1 (and there’s no sign of him moving away from it) and with Dante Polvara facing another extended period of time on the sidelines, then it feels time to make Heltne Nilsen & Palaversa his picks in the centre of the park for the foreseeable future. They provide physicality and, when on form, they are more technically secure than Shinnie.

If Thelin is keen to keep with the box 4 of CBs & CMs with the onus on the CMs to take the ball in tight spaces, turn and break lines, then I am much more comfortable in the technical competence of Palaversa & Heltne Nilsen. See below for example of the 2 x 2 box that Thelin likes his CBs & CMs to adopt.

Now… All of this, perhaps, needs to be put into some context – Dunfermline, curiously, didn’t really adopt any of the obvious tactics that teams in the Premiership have utilized to great effect on us recently.

The Pars didn’t really get any sort of high press working effectively against Tobers and Knoester and, indeed, their 4-3-3 shape that they utilized in the opening 60 minutes often made it easy for the CBs to find a pass into Heltne Nilsen or Palaversa – the Pars also never really then pressured the Dons’ central midfielders and it was all, a little too easy from that perspective. See below where I’ve overlaid, roughly, the average positions of the Dunfermline attackers during the first 60 minutes:-

You can see how easy it is for Tobers (in particular) to find Heltne Nilsen or Palaversa with minimal interference from Dunfermline. So, caution needs to be exercised around the performance of Heltne Nilsen & Palaversa to an extent but lets take the positives while we can, shall we?

Knoester & Tobers

A first showing for our Dutch defender and Mats Knoester had a very comfortable afternoon at the heart of the defence alongside Kirsters Tobers. A new-look central defensive partnership that is promising on paper but how did they fair on the grass?

Knoester, during his pre-game press interviews had spoken openly about his belief in his own ability with the ball at his feet and the good news is that he doesn’t appear to have been overplaying his hand. Given his upbringing in the Dutch system, you’d expect him to be comfortable on the ball and that was well demonstrated throughout the game.

A 93% pass success rate throughout but, perhaps the most significant element was in terms of his ability to play progressive passes – Knoester attempted 18 progressive passes through the game and was successful with 17 of them (94% success rate) and when he made passes into the final third (11) he found his man on 10 occasions (91% success rate). This is a significant leap for the side when stacked up against the likes of Gavin Molloy’s numbers for the season to date. For what it’s worth, I still think there’s a player there in Gavin Molloy but some time to develop his rough edges will be neeed.

Tobers, similarly, had a good game with the ball at his feet – 97% pass success rate and a 90% progressive pass success rate for the Latvian national captain.

Tobers ability to step forward and play a ball that breaks the lines was also key in our third goal.

His ball to Gueye ends up breaking, fortunately into the path of Morris but, again, Tobers has taken out the midfield line of Dunfermline with ease, eventually giving Morris a one on one situation to exploit.

I criticized Dunfermline’s setup above but, there’s an element of Aberdeen’s own play causing Dunfermline headaches in terms of their defensive setup. Having 2 ball playing centre halves helps to unsettle any potential game plan that an opposition has.

This is enhanced further by a natural left-foot/right-foot partnership – if a high press is invoked in the central areas, both Knoester & Tobers are capable of simply opening their bodies up and playing to the wide areas – if a team tries to counter that, then likely at least one central midfielder becomes open and vice-versa.

Knoester, in particular, demonstrated this to perfection – Knoester was finding MacKenzie, Palaversa, Heltne Nilsen and Okkels with ease but was also able to knock balls straight up the middle of the park into the likes of Gueye & Nisbet, bypassing the entire midfield press in an instant.

Tobers, similarly, managed to find Jensen on the right flank with line breaking passes on a number of occasions, as well as being finding his central midfield colleagues & Gueye

Knoester, perhaps, arrived with the least fanfare of all our January acquisitions but there’s a definite argument to be made that he may be our most effective if he continues to demonstrate this ability with the ball at his feet.

Again, one swallow does not a summer make but this was an encouraging start to a new defensive pairing. With the departure of Ruby confirmed earlier today, they are clearly now Thelin’s number one pairing and we have to hope that they can continue to develop.

Jensen & Keskinen

Another new partnership was formed up the right flank on Sunday afternoon with Alexander Jensen getting a first go in his more natural right-back role, backing up Topi Keskinen who Thelin is still favouring on the right side. It was another impressive outing from the young Dane who is fast becoming a fan favourite and his performance on Sunday aligned perfectly with what we were told we were getting when he made the move from Brommapojkarna during the January window. Jensen has an incredible engine and his ability to get up and down the line consistently will be a huge benefit to this side. Look at the average position map above – on so many occasions, Jensen was playing, effectively as an old-school winger and his final ball into the box was, in the main, of a high standard – on another day, he easily has one or two assists to his name.

Jensen’s goal was also another example of an improvement in the Dons performance - as Keskinen’s cross made it’s way into the box, there were 4 red shirts waiting up against 5 defenders, a stark improvement on recent weeks.

Jensen’s ability to hold the touch line and work up and down the flank also provides Topi Keskinen with more freedom to dot around the inside channels – this was also an improved performance from Keskinen, he was getting into the box more frequently and with a bit more conviction (read confidence) he also would have had more than one assist and possibly a goal or two as well.

Again, Thelin’s plan to have at least one winger running in behind the defensive line in central areas was displayed – look at the average position map above, Keskinen is often the most central and furthest advanced player in our side, filling in the space where Nisbet or Gueye have dropped deep to play. Jensen’s ability to work his touchline gives Keskinen even more freedom to play in this way.

If the Dons can get our final pass into these areas correctly, there are goals to be had from this setup and that may be heightened with the introduction of Oday Dabbagh who also appears to be a player looking to play on the shoulder of the defence.

Pape Habib Gueye

Since his return, Gueye has been deployed as a No. 9 but it’s clear that this is not the role that maximises your return out of the big man. Prior to his injury, we were benefitting from his unpredictability playing either as a No. 10 or off the left flank. He was given the ability to roam and cause havoc wherever he popped up and it was welcome to see him reinstated to this deeper role against Dunfermline - and it worked.

He is absolutely not your typical No. 10 and his first touch remains, at times, a mystery but Gueye also brings an element of chaos to proceedings and the importance of that cannot be understated. Thelin’s side is, generally, extremely drilled and rigid in terms of how the team is setup, you need that level of unpredictability to unsettle opponents and Gueye brings that by the boat load.

Gueye’s height and physical strength also provides additional threat at set pieces (see his goal) and when it comes to winning headers when we go a bit more direct. His ability to arrive late in the box is also useful and he has a decent level of composure - his assist for Nisbet’s miss was inch perfect and showed a player who is more than aware of what is going on around him as well.

For now, it seems clear that Pape is back and the No. 10 position is his. Where that leaves Leighton Clarkson is another matter…

Reasons to be hopeful?

All in all, this was a professional performance from Thelin’s men - Dunfermline certainly helped our cause at times as well but there are, clearly, a number of positives to takeaway from the game.

A clean sheet for a new-look back 5 is not to be sniffed at and the Tobers/Knoester partnership looks promising - how they fare against Angry Simon Murray at Dens will be another test but early signs look good.

Dundee will pose an entirely different threat - they showed in the second half at Dens earlier in the season and in the first half at Pittodrie that they do carry a threat - we have struggled to deal with Dundee in wide areas - with Jensen, in particular, so keen to get up the line, we will need to be mindful of the space in behind where the ball is turned over quickly. Tony Doc’s side desperately need a result in the league as well so it’s poised to be a very interesting matchup in Dundee in front of another sold-out away end.

Fingers crossed we can get back onto the horse from a league perspective, with United visiting Celtic Park this weekend, there is a golden chance to reclaim 3rd spot - what a boost that would be to confidence down AB24 way if we were able to do so having been so poor for so many games.

Onwards.
COYR.